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Spread: Lightning (-1.5)

● quote 330 min ago
Sports→HockeyCloses: 21 minutesLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Lightning vs. Rangers
36.5¢
Lightning
63.5¢
Rangers
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:8 trades$64 trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 31 min agoofficial metadata 1798 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$10
6h
−$57
tracked
$64

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 330 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 31 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1798 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-13 23:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nhl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Lightning" if the Lightning win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Rangers".

Read full resolution rules

In the NHL game, scheduled for October 13 at 7:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Lightning" if the Lightning win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Rangers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x6b1d…a01a2 linked markets · $255 gross
0x46c2…2cc72 linked markets · $90 gross
0x1277…24fc2 linked markets · $25 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lightning; negative values favor Rangers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRangers · $10
6hRangers · $57
24hRangers · $60

Lightning price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lightning price. Rangers fills are converted to the complementary Lightning probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current36.5¢
VWAP 24h36.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d36.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lightning price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$64
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.