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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Sports→TennisSettlement: Daniil MedvedevLiquidity: $105.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
100.0¢
Daniil Medvedev payout
0.0¢
Stefanos Tsitsipas payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:151 trades$650.8K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 384 min agoofficial metadata 39 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Daniil Medvedev · $43.0K net·10 wallets(2🐋)·$106.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDaniil Medvedev$113.2K@ 100¢·1827575782

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Daniil Medvedev. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-21 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Stefanos Tsitsipas. This market will resolve to 'Stefanos Tsitsipas' if Stefanos Tsitsipas advances against Daniil Medvedev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xcd60…1d442 linked markets · $18 gross
0x8adc…ceaf2 linked markets · $14 gross
0x7b29…7feb2 linked markets · $6 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Daniil Medvedev@ 86.0¢8h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Daniil Medvedev@ 87.0¢8h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Stefanos Tsitsipas@ 14.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -13.9pp6h UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY Daniil Medvedev@ 88.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +11.3pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Stefanos Tsitsipas DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $27.2K → $14.6K · 25s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniil Medvedev; negative values favor Stefanos Tsitsipas. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaniil Medvedev · $0
6hStefanos Tsitsipas · $1.5K
24hStefanos Tsitsipas · $129.7K

Daniil Medvedev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniil Medvedev price. Stefanos Tsitsipas fills are converted to the complementary Daniil Medvedev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h93.8¢▲ above by 6.2pp
VWAP 7d93.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniil Medvedev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$415.4K
90¢
$4.5K
85¢
$153.5K
80¢
$30.4K
75¢
$2.5K
70¢
$1.6K
65¢
$47.6K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLDaniil Medvedev$101.5K@ 99.9¢
18275757820x2798…0b7d
🐋—about 7 hours ago
SELLDaniil Medvedev$20.6K@ 99.9¢
madkkee0xd27c…c081
🐋—about 7 hours ago
SELLDaniil Medvedev$67.2K@ 99.9¢
18275757820x2798…0b7d
🐋—about 7 hours ago
SELLDaniil Medvedev$113.2K@ 99.9¢
18275757820x2798…0b7d
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$27.7K@ 99.2¢0x09be…9c32🐋—about 7 hours ago
SELLDaniil Medvedev$14.4K@ 97.0¢
redvinny0x56c9…0d9e
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYStefanos Tsitsipas$10.8K@ 11.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYStefanos Tsitsipas$16.5K@ 11.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$18.3K@ 89.0¢
18275757820x2798…0b7d
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$20.6K@ 88.0¢
18275757820x2798…0b7d
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$30.7K@ 87.0¢
18275757820x2798…0b7d
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$15.5K@ 68.0¢
mschaib0xf884…f5b2
🐋—about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

1827575782Daniil Medvedev$95.3K
BUY VWAP 87.8¢·8 fills
RoshanMVPDaniil Medvedev$48.2K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·7 fills
UpTheBluesDaniil Medvedev$33.2K
BUY VWAP 82.9¢·13 fills
0x09be…9c32Daniil Medvedev$27.7K
BUY VWAP 99.2¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Stefanos Tsitsipas$27.3K
BUY VWAP 11.0¢·2 fills
mschaibDaniil Medvedev$15.5K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.