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Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer

Sports→TennisSettlement: Lukas NeumayerLiquidity: $50.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $60.8KEvent: Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer
0.0¢
Elmer Moeller payout
100.0¢
Lukas Neumayer payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLukas Neumayer$33.5K@ 100¢·pelik

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Lukas Neumayer. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-19 10:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Elmer Moeller and Lukas Neumayer in the Maia, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elmer Moeller' if Elmer Moeller advances against Lukas Neumayer. This market will resolve to 'Lukas Neumayer' if Lukas Neumayer advances against Elmer Moeller. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 7d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 7d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Lukas Neumayer7d ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Lukas Neumayer@ 79.0¢7d ago
15m CONFIRMED +20.5pp1h CONFIRMED +20.8pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Elmer Moeller; negative values favor Lukas Neumayer. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hElmer Moeller · $0
6hLukas Neumayer · $7.6K
24hLukas Neumayer · $90.7K

Elmer Moeller price VWAP

Volume-weighted Elmer Moeller price. Lukas Neumayer fills are converted to the complementary Elmer Moeller probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h11.1¢▼ below by 11.1pp
VWAP 7d11.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Elmer Moeller price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$211
45¢
$1.6K
40¢
$8
35¢
$102
30¢
$31.7K
25¢
$28.3K
20¢
$2.4K
15¢
$1
10¢
$20.5K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$117.1K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLLukas Neumayer$21.8K@ 99.8¢
austr0x1245…e0af
🐋—7 days ago
BUYLukas Neumayer$33.5K@ 99.9¢
pelik0x6a88…b859
🐋—7 days ago
SELLLukas Neumayer$11.6K@ 99.3¢
xabidaking0x3f98…0aa1
🐋—7 days ago
BUYLukas Neumayer$13.0K@ 99.9¢
jiafanpomarke0010x7635…63f6
🐋—7 days ago
SELLLukas Neumayer$17.7K@ 99.9¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—7 days ago
BUYLukas Neumayer$19.0K@ 87.9¢
austr0x1245…e0af
🐋—7 days ago
BUYLukas Neumayer$18.0K@ 73.0¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—7 days ago
BUYLukas Neumayer$14.9K@ 67.5¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—7 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.