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Games Total: O/U 3.5

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · League of LegendsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $10.9KEvent: LoL: FURIA Esports vs MVK Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In
0.1¢
Over
100.0¢
Under
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution69Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:26 trades$592 trackedsource coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$22
6h
+$353
tracked
$592

1 verified profitable wallet: Under · $7 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-16 05:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if FURIA Esports and MVK Esports play 4 or more games in this series.

•If fewer than 4 games are played, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Upper Bracket Semifinal 1 match between FURIA Esports and MVK Esports in the Worlds Play-In, initially scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if FURIA Esports and MVK Esports play 4 or more games in this series. If fewer than 4 games are played, this market will resolve to "Under". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the total, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 15, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining games required to decide the match, including a game in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 1d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
vtcchampion527 linked markets · $127.9K gross
5e46h3 linked markets · $108.1K gross
johnbaster2 linked markets · $60.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Under UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $183 → $123 · 105s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $22
6hOver · $353
24hOver · $380

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h66.1¢▼ below by 66.1pp
VWAP 7d66.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$65
80¢
$16
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$430
60¢
$14
55¢
$38
50¢
$7
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$11
20¢
$0
15¢
$3
10¢
$2
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$7

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: FURIA Esports vs MVK Esports - Game 2 Winner
0.1¢$1.3Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: FURIA Esports vs MVK Esports - Game 1 Winner
0.1¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: FURIA Esports vs MVK Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In
0.1¢$1.1Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: FURIA Esports vs MVK Esports - Game 3 Winner
0.1¢$660.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 4.5
0.1¢$123.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs MVK Esports (+1.5)
0.1¢$68.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: FUR (-2.5) vs MVK Esports (+2.5)
0.1¢$31.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: FURIA Esports vs MVK Esports - Game 4 Winner
50.5¢$11.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.