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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Tommy Paul vs Valentin Vacherot

Sports→TennisSettlement: Tommy PaulLiquidity: $157.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $750.9KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Tommy Paul vs Valentin Vacherot
100.0¢
Tommy Paul payout
0.0¢
Valentin Vacherot payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tommy Paul · $32.3K net·9 wallets(1🐋)·$67.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTommy Paul$23.6K@ 100¢·madkkee

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Tommy Paul. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-19 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Valentin Vacherot in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Valentin Vacherot. This market will resolve to 'Valentin Vacherot' if Valentin Vacherot advances against Tommy Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 1d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 1d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $4.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Tommy Paul@ 93.0¢1d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Tommy Paul1d ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Tommy Paul@ 64.0¢1d ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h CONFIRMED +29.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tommy Paul; negative values favor Valentin Vacherot. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hValentin Vacherot · $35.3K
6hTommy Paul · $10.9K
24hTommy Paul · $20.5K

Tommy Paul price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tommy Paul price. Valentin Vacherot fills are converted to the complementary Tommy Paul probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h69.5¢▲ above by 30.4pp
VWAP 7d69.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tommy Paul price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$58.5K
90¢
$14.1K
85¢
$0
80¢
$2.4K
75¢
$31.7K
70¢
$8.8K
65¢
$3.7K
60¢
$54.3K
55¢
$69.9K
50¢
$45.7K
45¢
$9.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLTommy Paul$23.6K@ 99.9¢
madkkee0xd27c…c081
🐋—1 day ago
SELLTommy Paul$11.8K@ 98.0¢
redvinny0x56c9…0d9e
🐋—1 day ago
BUYTommy Paul$11.1K@ 54.0¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—1 day ago
BUYValentin Vacherot$15.0K@ 37.9¢0x760f…326a🐋—1 day ago
BUYTommy Paul$11.8K@ 51.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—1 day ago
BUYTommy Paul$10.4K@ 59.1¢0x0cdf…ec9e🐋—2 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kdvlklkvlsklkfsTommy Paul$31.6K
BUY VWAP 55.1¢·4 fills
0x760f…326aValentin Vacherot$15.0K
BUY VWAP 37.9¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesTommy Paul$14.0K
BUY VWAP 84.9¢·6 fills
KkunnValentin Vacherot$13.7K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·2 fills
FlaznorpTommy Paul$11.8K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
0x0cdf…ec9eTommy Paul$10.4K
BUY VWAP 59.1¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.