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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

Sports→TennisSettlement: Felix Auger-AliassimeLiquidity: $183.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $509.5KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
0.0¢
Pablo Carreno Busta payout
100.0¢
Felix Auger-Aliassime payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:143 trades$209.2K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1143 min agoofficial metadata 1124 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Felix Auger-Aliassime · $85.1K net·11 wallets(2🐋)·$103.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLFelix Auger-Aliassime$20.9K@ 78¢·beeemw

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Felix Auger-Aliassime. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-19 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Pablo Carreno Busta and Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno Busta' if Pablo Carreno Busta advances against Felix Auger-Aliassime. This market will resolve to 'Felix Auger-Aliassime' if Felix Auger-Aliassime advances against Pablo Carreno Busta. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Felix Auger-Aliassime@ 95.0¢19h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Pablo Carreno Busta DOWN 8.5pp · near-book depth $118 → $3.0K · 29s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Pablo Carreno Busta; negative values favor Felix Auger-Aliassime. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFelix Auger-Aliassime · $2.5K
6hFelix Auger-Aliassime · $62.0K
24hFelix Auger-Aliassime · $70.8K

Pablo Carreno Busta price VWAP

Volume-weighted Pablo Carreno Busta price. Felix Auger-Aliassime fills are converted to the complementary Pablo Carreno Busta probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h16.6¢▼ below by 16.6pp
VWAP 7d16.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Pablo Carreno Busta price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$1.3K
25¢
$58.1K
20¢
$78.4K
15¢
$2.2K
10¢
$8.1K
5¢
$24.5K
0¢
← now
$49.7K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLFelix Auger-Aliassime$18.1K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 19 hours ago
BUYPablo Carreno Busta$11.4K@ 25.4¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 20 hours ago
SELLFelix Auger-Aliassime$20.9K@ 77.8¢
beeemw0x1e38…fd47
🐋—about 20 hours ago
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime$14.8K@ 76.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 21 hours ago
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime$10.5K@ 74.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 21 hours ago
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime$10.0K@ 75.0¢
0000.0x49e0…9af1
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesFelix Auger-Aliassime$34.1K
BUY VWAP 80.4¢·15 fills
FlaznorpFelix Auger-Aliassime$17.9K
BUY VWAP 77.6¢·2 fills
kkookkooFelix Auger-Aliassime$13.8K
BUY VWAP 76.2¢·2 fills
KkunnPablo Carreno Busta$12.7K
BUY VWAP 25.5¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Felix Auger-Aliassime$10.5K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill
0000.Felix Auger-Aliassime$10.0K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.