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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Machac

Sports→TennisSettlement: Alexander BublikLiquidity: $254.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $299.6KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Machac
100.0¢
Alexander Bublik payout
0.0¢
Tomas Machac payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alexander Bublik · $8.1K net·5 wallets·$9.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlexander Bublik$15.4K@ 68¢·beeemw

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Alexander Bublik. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-17 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Bublik and Tomas Machac in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Bublik' if Alexander Bublik advances against Tomas Machac. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Alexander Bublik. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Alexander Bublik7d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Alexander Bublik@ 67.0¢7d ago
15m CONFIRMED +14.0pp1h CONFIRMED +17.8pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alexander Bublik; negative values favor Tomas Machac. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTomas Machac · $18.5K
6hAlexander Bublik · $60.2K
24hAlexander Bublik · $60.2K

Alexander Bublik price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alexander Bublik price. Tomas Machac fills are converted to the complementary Alexander Bublik probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h81.8¢▲ above by 18.2pp
VWAP 7d81.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alexander Bublik price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$51.2K
90¢
$7.5K
85¢
$4.6K
80¢
$9.6K
75¢
$0
70¢
$418
65¢
$51.1K
60¢
$10.2K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAlexander Bublik$15.0K@ 99.9¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—7 days ago
BUYAlexander Bublik$15.4K@ 68.5¢
beeemw0x1e38…fd47
🐋—7 days ago
BUYAlexander Bublik$10.1K@ 67.0¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—7 days ago
BUYAlexander Bublik$10.0K@ 66.0¢
kahe0x88d1…18da
🐋—7 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.