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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur vs Alex Molcan

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $99.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $170.1KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur vs Alex Molcan
71.5¢
Alex de Minaur
28.5¢
Alex Molcan
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly90Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets10Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:41 trades$55.6K trackedsource coverage 33%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alex de Minaur · $4.5K net·6 wallets·$45.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlex de Minaur$8.2K@ 71¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Alex Molcan pressure: $1.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.4K
6h
−$6.9K
tracked
$55.6K

6 verified profitable wallets: Alex de Minaur · $4.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alex Molcan or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Alex Molcan in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Alex Molcan. This market will resolve to 'Alex Molcan' if Alex Molcan advances against Alex de Minaur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Alex Molcan@ 29.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex de Minaur; negative values favor Alex Molcan. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex Molcan · $1.4K
6hAlex Molcan · $6.9K
24hAlex de Minaur · $158

Alex de Minaur price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex de Minaur price. Alex Molcan fills are converted to the complementary Alex de Minaur probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current71.5¢
VWAP 24h70.8¢▲ above by 0.7pp
VWAP 7d70.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex de Minaur price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$54.2K
65¢
$1.4K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cAlex Molcan$20.1K
BUY VWAP 29.5¢·11 fills
ferrariChampions2026Alex de Minaur$12.1K
BUY VWAP 71.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.