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Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?

● quote just now
Geopolitics→Closes: 5 daysLiquidity: $17.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $65.9KEvent: Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

15.0¢
YES
85.0¢
NO
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution54Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority37Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%
24h sample:8 trades$45.8K tracked25% 🐋source coverage 69%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$10.8K@ 78¢·tiya1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: $4.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.8K
6h
−$9.8K
tracked
$45.8K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 82% · priority 37

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-31 20:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if the East-West oil pipeline is targeted by a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Riyadh Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the East-West oil pipeline is targeted by a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Riyadh Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The East-West oil pipeline refers to Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline (also known as Petroline), which carries crude oil from Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, including its pumping stations. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that impacts the East-West oil pipeline. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on the East-West oil pipeline do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact the East-West oil pipeline if it directly impacts the pipeline or any of its pumping stations. The occurrence and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Riyadh Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia and a consensus of credible reporting.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
tomo12 linked markets · $9.1K gross
meizi2 linked markets · $1.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $4.8K
6hNO · $9.8K
24hNO · $10.8K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current15.0¢
VWAP 24h22.16¢▼ below by 7.2pp
VWAP 7d22.03¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$41.0K
15¢
← now
$5.8K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNO$10.8K@ 78.0¢
tiya10xe8d8…a403
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNO$10.7K@ 77.0¢
tiya10xe8d8…a403
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tiya1No$10.7K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.