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Antofagasta: Nick Hardt vs Felipe Meligeni Alves

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $142.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $197.4KEvent: Antofagasta: Nick Hardt vs Felipe Meligeni Alves
0.1¢
Nick Hardt
100.0¢
Felipe Meligeni Alves
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:79 trades$76.9K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Felipe Meligeni Alves · $14.2K net·5 wallets·$14.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLFelipe Meligeni Alves$19.2K@ 100¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Nick Hardt pressure: $7.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$7.0K
6h
−$2.9K
tracked
$76.9K

5 verified profitable wallets: Felipe Meligeni Alves · $14.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Nick Hardt or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-14 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Nick Hardt and Felipe Meligeni Alves in the Antofagasta, originally scheduled for October 7, 2026 at 3:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nick Hardt' if Nick Hardt advances against Felipe Meligeni Alves. This market will resolve to 'Felipe Meligeni Alves' if Felipe Meligeni Alves advances against Nick Hardt. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Felipe Meligeni Alves@ 99.0¢21m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Felipe Meligeni Alves UP 3.3pp · near-book depth $17.1K → $329 · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Nick Hardt; negative values favor Felipe Meligeni Alves. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNick Hardt · $7.0K
6hFelipe Meligeni Alves · $2.9K
24hFelipe Meligeni Alves · $2.9K

Nick Hardt price VWAP

Volume-weighted Nick Hardt price. Felipe Meligeni Alves fills are converted to the complementary Nick Hardt probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h13.6¢▼ below by 13.6pp
VWAP 7d13.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Nick Hardt price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$21.9K
25¢
$16
20¢
$4.8K
15¢
$5.6K
10¢
$4.7K
5¢
$4.0K
0¢
← now
$35.9K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLFelipe Meligeni Alves$19.2K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—16 minutes ago
BUYFelipe Meligeni Alves$13.0K@ 67.5¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kkookkooFelipe Meligeni Alves$13.0K
BUY VWAP 67.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.