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Spread: Bears (-3.5)

● quote 15s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $1.5MOfficial 24h Vol: $375.9KEvent: Patriots vs. Bears
43.5¢
Bears
56.5¢
Patriots
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly34Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets98Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$204.9K tracked18% 🐋source coverage 55%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 31 min agoofficial metadata 53s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Patriots · $194.7K net·3 wallets(2🐋)·$197.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPatriots$179.9K@ 56¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$19
6h
−$192.4K
tracked
$204.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: Patriots · $194.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 79% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 31 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-23 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Bears" if the Bears win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Patriots".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Patriots and Bears, scheduled for October 22 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bears" if the Bears win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Patriots". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xabea…72ae2 linked markets · $12.4K gross
SunlineTicker2 linked markets · $6.1K gross
titocomino2 linked markets · $4.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Patriots@ 57.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Bears; negative values favor Patriots. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPatriots · $19
6hPatriots · $192.4K
24hPatriots · $191.8K

Bears price VWAP

Volume-weighted Bears price. Patriots fills are converted to the complementary Bears probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current43.5¢
VWAP 24h43.9¢▼ below by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d44.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Bears price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$12.1K
40¢
← now
$204.3K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPatriots$16.4K@ 57.0¢
StarryPath0x55b4…80ea
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYPatriots$179.9K@ 56.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYPatriots$11.5K@ 55.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—1 day ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Bears (-2.5)
53.5¢$354.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Patriots vs. Bears
40.5¢$99.8Kpriority46Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Patriots vs. Bears: O/U 50.5
51.5¢$80.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bears (-6.5)
35.5¢$8.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bears (-5.5)
0.0¢$7.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Patriots vs. Bears: O/U 52.5
44.5¢$189priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Patriots vs. Bears: O/U 54.5
39.5¢$100priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)
0.0¢$39priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Patriots$179.9K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
StarryPathPatriots$16.4K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill
SDTradingPatriots$11.5K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.