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Patriots vs. Bears

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $3.9MOfficial 24h Vol: $102.0KEvent: Patriots vs. Bears
40.5¢
Patriots
59.5¢
Bears
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority50Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:47 trades$36.9K trackedsource coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBears$9.1K@ 60¢·Mastermoney

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Bears pressure: $1.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.3K
6h
+$6.5K
tracked
$36.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: Bears · $8 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 50

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Bears or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-23 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Patriots" if Patriots win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Bears" if Bears win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Patriots and Bears, scheduled for October 22 at 8:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Patriots" if Patriots win the game. This market will resolve to "Bears" if Bears win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xabea…72ae2 linked markets · $14.6K gross
SunlineTicker2 linked markets · $6.1K gross
titocomino2 linked markets · $4.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Patriots; negative values favor Bears. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBears · $1.3K
6hPatriots · $6.5K
24hBears · $9.6K

Patriots price VWAP

Volume-weighted Patriots price. Bears fills are converted to the complementary Patriots probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.5¢
VWAP 24h40.4¢▲ above by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d40.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Patriots price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$36.9K
35¢
$5.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Patriots vs. Bears: O/U 50.5
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Spread: Bears (-5.5)
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Patriots vs. Bears: O/U 52.5
44.5¢$189priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Patriots vs. Bears: O/U 54.5
39.5¢$100priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)
0.0¢$39priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.