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Spread: Notre Dame (-10.5)

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $406.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $180.6KEvent: Notre Dame vs. BYU
50.5¢
Notre Dame
49.5¢
BYU
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:191 trades$82.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 57 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:BYU · $46.4K net·7 wallets(1🐋)·$46.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBYU$30.7K@ 51¢·SDTrading

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$50
6h
+$15.9K
tracked
$82.0K

7 verified profitable wallets: BYU · $46.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 57 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Notre Dame" if Notre Dame win the game by 11 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "BYU".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 17 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Notre Dame" if Notre Dame win the game by 11 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "BYU". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $13.3K gross
iWasEnough2 linked markets · $212 gross
0x3e1a…4d5c3 linked markets · $44 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Notre Dame@ 51.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY BYU@ 52.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h INVALIDATED -3.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Notre Dame; negative values favor BYU. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBYU · $50
6hNotre Dame · $15.9K
24hBYU · $6.6K

Notre Dame price VWAP

Volume-weighted Notre Dame price. BYU fills are converted to the complementary Notre Dame probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h49.7¢▲ above by 0.8pp
VWAP 7d49.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Notre Dame price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$44.9K
45¢
$70.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNotre Dame$15.0K@ 51.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBYU$30.7K@ 51.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYBYU$11.8K@ 51.0¢
ArielFilipino0xe18e…f826
🐋—1 day ago
BUYBYU$11.9K@ 51.6¢
ArielFilipino0xe18e…f826
🐋—3 days ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Notre Dame vs. BYU
78.5¢$31.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Notre Dame vs. BYU: O/U 45.5
0.0¢$8.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Notre Dame (-13.5)
0.0¢$1.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Notre Dame (-8.5)
0.0¢$684priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Notre Dame (-6.5)
0.0¢$517priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Notre Dame vs. BYU: O/U 47.5
0.0¢$132priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Notre Dame vs. BYU: O/U 51.5
37.5¢$46priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Notre Dame vs. BYU: O/U 53.5
0.0¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ArielFilipinoBYU$32.9K
BUY VWAP 51.3¢·3 fills
SDTradingBYU$30.7K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
BrotherObamaNotre Dame$15.0K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.