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Notre Dame vs. BYU

● quote 12s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $31.3KEvent: Notre Dame vs. BYU
78.5¢
Notre Dame
21.5¢
BYU
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$14.8K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 56 min agoofficial metadata 32s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNotre Dame$10.6K@ 79¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Notre Dame pressure: $2.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.0K
6h
+$3.0K
tracked
$14.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: Notre Dame · $10.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 56 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Notre Dame or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Notre Dame" if Notre Dame win the game.

•This market will resolve to "BYU" if BYU win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between Notre Dame and BYU, scheduled for October 17 at 7:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Notre Dame" if Notre Dame win the game. This market will resolve to "BYU" if BYU win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $13.3K gross
iWasEnough2 linked markets · $212 gross
0x3e1a…4d5c3 linked markets · $44 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Notre Dame; negative values favor BYU. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNotre Dame · $2.0K
6hNotre Dame · $3.0K
24hNotre Dame · $12.5K

Notre Dame price VWAP

Volume-weighted Notre Dame price. BYU fills are converted to the complementary Notre Dame probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current78.5¢
VWAP 24h78.9¢▼ below by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d78.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Notre Dame price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
← now
$16.3K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNotre Dame$10.6K@ 79.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 10 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Notre Dame (-10.5)
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Notre Dame vs. BYU: O/U 47.5
0.0¢$132priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Notre Dame vs. BYU: O/U 51.5
37.5¢$46priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Notre Dame vs. BYU: O/U 53.5
0.0¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Notre Dame$10.6K
BUY VWAP 79.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.