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Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $307.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $135.9KEvent: Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina
51.5¢
Appalachian State
48.5¢
Coastal Carolina
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:20 trades$64.1K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 42 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Appalachian State · $15.0K net·2 wallets·$15.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCoastal Carolina$27.0K@ 48¢·bbbetk

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Coastal Carolina pressure: $5.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.1K
6h
−$5.1K
tracked
$64.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: Appalachian State · $15.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 42 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Coastal Carolina or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Appalachian State" if Appalachian State win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Coastal Carolina" if Coastal Carolina win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina, scheduled for October 16 at 8:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Appalachian State" if Appalachian State win the game. This market will resolve to "Coastal Carolina" if Coastal Carolina win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ArielFilipino2 linked markets · $9.9K gross
quavoo4 linked markets · $5.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Coastal Carolina@ 50.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Appalachian State; negative values favor Coastal Carolina. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCoastal Carolina · $5.1K
6hCoastal Carolina · $5.1K
24hCoastal Carolina · $28.5K

Appalachian State price VWAP

Volume-weighted Appalachian State price. Coastal Carolina fills are converted to the complementary Appalachian State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h51.6¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d51.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Appalachian State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$69.9K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCoastal Carolina$10.9K@ 49.0¢
bbbetk0x7c9c…91e9
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYCoastal Carolina$27.0K@ 48.0¢
bbbetk0x7c9c…91e9
🐋—about 11 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Appalachian State (-1.5)
49.5¢$8.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina: O/U 61.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Coastal Carolina (-3.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Coastal Carolina (-13.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Coastal Carolina (-1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Appalachian State (-13.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Coastal Carolina (-17.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina: O/U 43.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

bbbetkCoastal Carolina$38.0K
BUY VWAP 48.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.