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Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $167.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $502.5KEvent: Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
0.1¢
Team Falcons
100.0¢
Natus Vincere
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly82Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets69Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:93 trades$162.7K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 22 min agoofficial metadata 24s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $17.7K net·6 wallets·$25.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Falcons$54.3K@ 32¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Team Falcons pressure: $2.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.3K
6h
+$82.8K
tracked
$162.7K

6 verified profitable wallets: Natus Vincere · $17.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: -31.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 22 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Team Falcons or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-07 01:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons wins 2 or more maps than Natus Vincere in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Natus Vincere".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between Team Falcons and Natus Vincere in the ESL Pro League Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons wins 2 or more maps than Natus Vincere in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Natus Vincere". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 20, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 6, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 5h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Diabolical-Prize2 linked markets · $490.6K gross
Lakersfan1112 linked markets · $363.1K gross
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f3 linked markets · $157.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Team Falcons@ 32.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h CONFIRMED +33.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY Team Falcons@ 32.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -6.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY Natus Vincere@ 69.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 69.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Natus Vincere UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $579 → $332 · 102s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Team Falcons; negative values favor Natus Vincere. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTeam Falcons · $2.3K
6hTeam Falcons · $82.8K
24hTeam Falcons · $67.3K

Team Falcons price VWAP

Volume-weighted Team Falcons price. Natus Vincere fills are converted to the complementary Team Falcons probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h31.6¢▼ below by 31.6pp
VWAP 7d31.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Team Falcons price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$65
50¢
$15
45¢
$16
40¢
$2.2K
35¢
$7.5K
30¢
$149.0K
25¢
$205
20¢
$366
15¢
$212
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$3.1K

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTeam Falcons$54.3K@ 32.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYNatus Vincere$20.7K@ 68.0¢
Diabolical-Prize0x7c37…6aeb
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons$34.3K@ 32.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111Team Falcons$88.6K
BUY VWAP 32.0¢·2 fills
0x29b5…cc6cNatus Vincere$21.4K
BUY VWAP 68.6¢·7 fills
Diabolical-PrizeNatus Vincere$20.7K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.