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China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz

Sports→TennisSettlement: Alex de MinaurLiquidity: $288.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $508.8KEvent: China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz
100.0¢
Alex de Minaur payout
0.0¢
Hubert Hurkacz payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHubert Hurkacz$28.0K@ 42¢·HectorHuang

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Alex de Minaur. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-12 07:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Hubert Hurkacz in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Hubert Hurkacz. This market will resolve to 'Hubert Hurkacz' if Hubert Hurkacz advances against Alex de Minaur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 11d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Hubert Hurkacz@ 42.0¢11d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -8.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY Alex de Minaur@ 58.0¢11d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Alex de Minaur@ 58.0¢11d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex de Minaur; negative values favor Hubert Hurkacz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHubert Hurkacz · $34.9K
6hHubert Hurkacz · $49.1K
24hAlex de Minaur · $30.6K

Alex de Minaur price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex de Minaur price. Hubert Hurkacz fills are converted to the complementary Alex de Minaur probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h75.0¢▲ above by 25.0pp
VWAP 7d75.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex de Minaur price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$85.2K
90¢
$486
85¢
$4.4K
80¢
$19.2K
75¢
$23.6K
70¢
$2
65¢
$0
60¢
$1.3K
55¢
$130.7K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAlex de Minaur$25.9K@ 99.9¢
kahe0x88d1…18da
🐋—11 days ago
SELLAlex de Minaur$12.5K@ 99.9¢
isco230x86eb…6566
🐋—11 days ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$15.8K@ 95.8¢0x09be…9c32🐋—11 days ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$13.8K@ 78.3¢
neutralwave230x5b63…11a4
🐋—11 days ago
BUYHubert Hurkacz$28.0K@ 42.2¢
HectorHuang0x568a…04d9
🐋—11 days ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$26.3K@ 57.8¢
askilika0x0979…8d9b
🐋—11 days ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$14.5K@ 56.0¢
kahe0x88d1…18da
🐋—12 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.