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Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-10-15?

Sports→SoccerSettlement: YESLiquidity: $1.6MOfficial 24h Vol: —Event: KKS Lech Poznań vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen
100.0¢
YES payout
0.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $723.1K net·11 wallets(2🐋)·$3.9M gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$2.3M@ 100¢·joseph00677

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome YES. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-15 16:45 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/
Outcome meaning

•If Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 15, 2026 If Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
UpTheBlues3 linked markets · $13.8K gross
Flaznorp2 linked markets · $11.5K gross
luisterra2 linked markets · $5.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY NO@ 31.0¢6d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY YES@ 70.0¢6d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY NO@ 31.0¢6d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
POSITION CHANGEBUY YES@ 69.0¢6d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hNO · $726.4K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h86.8¢▲ above by 13.2pp
VWAP 7d86.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$2.4M
90¢
$6.9K
85¢
$0
80¢
$3.4K
75¢
$1.0K
70¢
$987.0K
65¢
$736.3K
60¢
$60.0K
55¢
$34.0K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLYES$20.0K@ 99.9¢
Sisyphus.0xfc25…1f7f
🐋—6 days ago
SELLYES$2.3M@ 99.9¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$15.0K@ 95.9¢
kmak10x2114…c1bb
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 95.0¢
ts69690xefa5…ec7d
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$15.4K@ 70.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$49.2K@ 70.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$50.1K@ 70.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$49.0K@ 70.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$49.0K@ 70.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$49.0K@ 70.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$55.5K@ 70.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$49.0K@ 70.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$48.3K@ 69.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$48.3K@ 69.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$48.3K@ 69.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$48.3K@ 69.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYNO$37.4K@ 31.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$49.0K@ 70.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$565.8K@ 70.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYNO$11.2K@ 31.0¢
SharkbetX-com0x2759…2b38
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$331.2K@ 69.7¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$44.9K@ 67.5¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$15.0K@ 68.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$25.6K@ 66.5¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$16.3K@ 63.0¢
Pjosully0x11de…bb27
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$27.9K@ 62.3¢
Pjosully0x11de…bb27
🐋—6 days ago
BUYNO$24.6K@ 41.0¢
gransaaa0x4d30…a42d
🐋—6 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

joseph00677Yes$1.6M
BUY VWAP 69.7¢·18 fills
PjosullyYes$44.2K
BUY VWAP 62.6¢·2 fills
SharkbetX-comNo$39.8K
BUY VWAP 31.1¢·9 fills
gransaaaNo$37.9K
BUY VWAP 40.9¢·5 fills
0x2c33…0563No$37.4K
BUY VWAP 31.0¢·1 fill
kmak1Yes$15.0K
BUY VWAP 95.9¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesNo$12.3K
BUY VWAP 30.4¢·10 fills
matanovikNo$10.4K
BUY VWAP 31.0¢·2 fills
ts6969Yes$10.0K
BUY VWAP 95.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.