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Spread: Commanders (-3.5)

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $124.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $136.2KEvent: Commanders vs. 49ers
14.5¢
Commanders
85.5¢
49ers
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection23Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$21.2K trackedsource coverage 16%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 17 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:49ers · $2.2K net·2 wallets·$2.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCommanders$9.0K@ 12¢·0xbc43…96d3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Commanders pressure: $4.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.9K
6h
+$6.1K
tracked
$21.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: 49ers · $2.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 17 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Commanders or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-20 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Commanders" if the Commanders win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "49ers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Commanders and 49ers, scheduled for October 19 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Commanders" if the Commanders win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "49ers". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05633 linked markets · $103.8K gross
0F623 linked markets · $69.5K gross
Pwaddler2 linked markets · $49.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Commanders; negative values favor 49ers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCommanders · $4.9K
6hCommanders · $6.1K
24hCommanders · $9.1K

Commanders price VWAP

Volume-weighted Commanders price. 49ers fills are converted to the complementary Commanders probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current14.5¢
VWAP 24h12.2¢▲ above by 2.3pp
VWAP 7d12.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Commanders price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$4
10¢
← now
$21.2K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Commanders vs. 49ers
23.5¢$565.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 52.5
46.5¢$381.8Kpriority65Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: 49ers (-7.5)
46.5¢$353.1Kpriority78Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 51.5
49.5¢$98.7Kpriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: 49ers (-6.5)
55.5¢$75.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Commanders (-14.5)
2.5¢$70.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: 49ers (-3.5)
64.5¢$40.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 50.5
53.5¢$36.7Kpriority70Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xbc43…96d3Commanders$15.1K
BUY VWAP 12.3¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.