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Commanders vs. 49ers

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $5.6MOfficial 24h Vol: $318.8KEvent: Commanders vs. 49ers
22.5¢
Commanders
77.5¢
49ers
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection25Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets58Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:97 trades$159.9K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Commanders · $21.2K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$36.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCommanders$34.1K@ 22¢·milkteaboba

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Commanders SETUP
What the tape says

Commanders pressure: $39.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$39.9K
6h
+$32.4K
tracked
$159.9K

5 verified profitable wallets: Commanders · $21.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 63

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Commanders or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-20 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Commanders" if Commanders win the game.

•This market will resolve to "49ers" if 49ers win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Commanders and 49ers, scheduled for October 19 at 8:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Commanders" if Commanders win the game. This market will resolve to "49ers" if 49ers win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0F623 linked markets · $69.3K gross
Pwaddler2 linked markets · $49.6K gross
Mastermoney3 linked markets · $35.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY 49ers@ 79.0¢18h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Commanders; negative values favor 49ers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCommanders · $39.9K
6hCommanders · $32.4K
24hCommanders · $1.3K

Commanders price VWAP

Volume-weighted Commanders price. 49ers fills are converted to the complementary Commanders probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current22.5¢
VWAP 24h21.5¢▲ above by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d21.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Commanders price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
← now
$164.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCommanders$34.1K@ 22.0¢
milkteaboba0xf4c9…f88c
🐋—9 minutes ago
BUYCommanders$11.0K@ 22.0¢
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN0xdaef…54e9
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUY49ers$10.0K@ 79.0¢
Brian888880xf7db…d23a
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYCommanders$22.0K@ 22.0¢
wan1230xde7b…5f4b
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUY49ers$15.0K@ 79.0¢0x9f15…bdb3🐋—about 18 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 52.5
46.5¢$359.4Kpriority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: 49ers (-7.5)
47.5¢$238.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Commanders (-3.5)
13.5¢$94.0Kpriority64Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 51.5
50.5¢$93.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Commanders (-14.5)
2.7¢$57.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: 49ers (-3.5)
65.5¢$40.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 50.5
54.5¢$31.3Kpriority45Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Commanders (-10.5)
4.5¢$22.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

milkteabobaCommanders$34.6K
BUY VWAP 22.0¢·2 fills
wan123Commanders$22.0K
BUY VWAP 22.0¢·1 fill
elPolloLoco49ers$15.8K
BUY VWAP 79.0¢·2 fills
0x9f15…bdb349ers$15.0K
BUY VWAP 79.0¢·1 fill
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCommanders$11.0K
BUY VWAP 22.0¢·1 fill
Brian8888849ers$10.0K
BUY VWAP 79.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.