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Spread: Chiefs (-7.5)

Sports→American FootballSettlement: ChiefsLiquidity: $224.8KOfficial 24h Vol: —Event: Chargers vs. Chiefs
100.0¢
Chiefs payout
0.0¢
Chargers payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Chiefs · $951 net·10 wallets·$36.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChiefs$22.0K@ 49¢·SDTrading

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Chiefs. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-18 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if the Chiefs win the game by 8 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chargers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Chargers and Chiefs, scheduled for October 18 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if the Chiefs win the game by 8 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chargers". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 4d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 4d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0F623 linked markets · $148.9K gross
HomeRunHazard5 linked markets · $56.5K gross
BreakTheBank2 linked markets · $29.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Chiefs@ 50.0¢6d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Chiefs; negative values favor Chargers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hChargers · $3.6K
6hChiefs · $16.1K
24hChiefs · $6.2K

Chiefs price VWAP

Volume-weighted Chiefs price. Chargers fills are converted to the complementary Chiefs probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h53.6¢▲ above by 46.4pp
VWAP 7d51.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Chiefs price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$4.0K
90¢
$450
85¢
$14
80¢
$17
75¢
$7
70¢
$7
65¢
$3.5K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$7.4K
45¢
$74.4K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYChiefs$22.0K@ 49.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—6 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SDTradingChiefs$22.0K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.