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Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Playoffs

● quote 2 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $155.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $252.0KEvent: Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Playoffs
0.1¢
100 Thieves
100.0¢
Heroic
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets4Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:157 trades$79.2K trackedsource coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:100 Thieves · $243 net·8 wallets·$6.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLHeroic$8.4K@ 100¢·iii252

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

100 Thieves pressure: $13.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$13.0K
6h
+$20.2K
tracked
$79.2K

8 verified profitable wallets: 100 Thieves · $243 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from 100 Thieves or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 23:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win the match against Heroic.

•This market will resolve to "Heroic" if Heroic win the match against 100 Thieves.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Grand final match between 100 Thieves and Heroic in the Stake Pulse Beat II Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win the match against Heroic. This market will resolve to "Heroic" if Heroic win the match against 100 Thieves. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 26, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
1231111111111112 linked markets · $3.8K gross
DzHero2 linked markets · $2.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Heroic DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $619 → $1.4K · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor 100 Thieves; negative values favor Heroic. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h100 Thieves · $13.0K
6h100 Thieves · $20.2K
24h100 Thieves · $20.2K

100 Thieves price VWAP

Volume-weighted 100 Thieves price. Heroic fills are converted to the complementary 100 Thieves probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h31.8¢▼ below by 31.8pp
VWAP 7d31.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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100 Thieves price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$1
85¢
$1.3K
80¢
$186
75¢
$181
70¢
$147
65¢
$4.4K
60¢
$2.0K
55¢
$218
50¢
$1.5K
45¢
$10.0K
40¢
$30.3K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$54
20¢
$2.7K
15¢
$89
10¢
$1.8K
5¢
$38
0¢
← now
$24.4K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.