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Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $22.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $141.7KEvent: LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs
77.0¢
LYON
23.0¢
Shopify Rebellion
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly47Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets79Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution70Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:28 trades$45.4K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 36 min agoofficial metadata 32s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:LYON · $953 net·3 wallets·$1.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLYON$23.2K@ 46¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$625
6h
+$1.7K
tracked
$45.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: LYON · $953 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 36 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON wins 3 or more games than Shopify Rebellion in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between LYON and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON wins 3 or more games than Shopify Rebellion in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 26, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
jaytee1582 linked markets · $19.6K gross
bluemol3 linked markets · $13.6K gross
0x076d…8d4c2 linked markets · $10.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY LYON@ 47.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +12.0pp
Latest book event: Shopify Rebellion UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $342 → $48 · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor LYON; negative values favor Shopify Rebellion. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hShopify Rebellion · $625
6hLYON · $1.7K
24hLYON · $30.4K

LYON price VWAP

Volume-weighted LYON price. Shopify Rebellion fills are converted to the complementary LYON probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current77.0¢
VWAP 24h45.6¢▲ above by 31.4pp
VWAP 7d45.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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LYON price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
← now
$9
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$561
55¢
$148
50¢
$0
45¢
$38.7K
40¢
$6.0K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLYON$23.2K@ 46.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111LYON$23.2K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.