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Will Erick Visconde win by KO or TKO?

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $38.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $201.9KEvent: Dana White's Contender Series: Ilias Bulaid vs. Erick Visconde (Featherweight, Main Card)
32.0¢
YES
68.0¢
NO
20.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution19Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%
24h sample:34 trades$75.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 40 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$10.6K@ 53¢·lucio88

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $8.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$8.0K
6h
−$37.3K
tracked
$75.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
20.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 40 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 20.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-30 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Erick Visconde defeats Ilias Bulaid at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 8, scheduled for September 29, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

•If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Erick Visconde defeats Ilias Bulaid at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 8, scheduled for September 29, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 13, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
lucio882 linked markets · $26.9K gross
Do-Not-Redeem4 linked markets · $24.6K gross
0xe911…3d4e3 linked markets · $22.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 16.0pp · near-book depth $5 → $3.0K · 17s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $8.0K
6hNO · $37.3K
24hNO · $37.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current32.0¢
VWAP 24h42.2¢▼ below by 10.2pp
VWAP 7d42.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$40.5K
40¢
$26.5K
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$6.7K
15¢
$1.7K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$10.6K@ 53.0¢
lucio880x3a55…394e
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

lucio88No$24.8K
BUY VWAP 54.2¢·8 fills
0xe911…3d4eNo$10.4K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.