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Spread: Patriots (-3.5)

Sports→American FootballSettlement: PatriotsLiquidity: $144.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $200.8KEvent: Raiders vs. Patriots
100.0¢
Patriots payout
0.0¢
Raiders payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRaiders$32.0K@ 51¢·ArielFilipino

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Patriots. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-11 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Patriots" if the Patriots win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Raiders".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Raiders and Patriots, scheduled for October 11 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Patriots" if the Patriots win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Raiders". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Raiders@ 52.0¢10d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Patriots@ 49.0¢10d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Raiders@ 51.0¢12d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Raiders@ 51.0¢12d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Patriots; negative values favor Raiders. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPatriots · $0
6hPatriots · $17.9K
24hPatriots · $18.0K

Patriots price VWAP

Volume-weighted Patriots price. Raiders fills are converted to the complementary Patriots probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h49.1¢▲ above by 50.9pp
VWAP 7d49.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Patriots price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$51.7K
45¢
$95.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRaiders$15.6K@ 52.0¢
WhattDoyoumean0x8660…93ed
🐋—10 days ago
BUYRaiders$16.2K@ 51.0¢
bands10xa080…234f
🐋—10 days ago
BUYPatriots$25.0K@ 50.0¢
wan1230xde7b…5f4b
🐋—10 days ago
BUYRaiders$32.0K@ 50.8¢
ArielFilipino0xe18e…f826
🐋—12 days ago
BUYRaiders$20.3K@ 50.0¢
Pwaddler0x1d1a…0df6
🐋—12 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.