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Spread: Broncos (-3.5)

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Closes: 1 dayLiquidity: $234.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $125.1KEvent: Rams vs. Broncos
31.5¢
Broncos
68.5¢
Rams
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:7 trades$51.2K trackedsource coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 284 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBroncos$9.6K@ 32¢·0xbc43…96d3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$11.8K
tracked
$51.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: Rams · $23.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 284 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-28 00:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Broncos" if the Broncos win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Rams".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Rams and Broncos, scheduled for September 27 at 8:20 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Broncos" if the Broncos win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Rams". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Rams@ 69.0¢18h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Broncos@ 32.0¢18h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Broncos; negative values favor Rams. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBroncos · $0
6hBroncos · $11.8K
24hBroncos · $4.4K

Broncos price VWAP

Volume-weighted Broncos price. Rams fills are converted to the complementary Broncos probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current31.5¢
VWAP 24h31.7¢▼ below by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d31.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Broncos price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$51.2K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xbc43…96d3Broncos$25.6K
BUY VWAP 32.0¢·3 fills
HomeRunHazardRams$23.4K
BUY VWAP 68.7¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.