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Spread: Chiefs (-13.5)

Sports→Settlement: ChiefsLiquidity: $19.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $182.6KEvent: Chiefs vs. Dolphins
100.0¢
Chiefs payout
0.0¢
Dolphins payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:23 trades$73.1K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 145 min agoofficial metadata 120 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Chiefs · $34.2K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$45.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChiefs$40.0K@ 40¢·takeormake

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Chiefs. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-27 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if the Chiefs win the game by 14 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Dolphins".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Chiefs and Dolphins, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if the Chiefs win the game by 14 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Dolphins". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
maz263 linked markets · $614.1K gross
HomeRunHazard7 linked markets · $305.3K gross
quavoo8 linked markets · $302.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Dolphins DOWN 8.5pp · near-book depth $4 → $44 · 45s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Chiefs; negative values favor Dolphins. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hChiefs · $2.6K
6hChiefs · $35.0K
24hChiefs · $33.4K

Chiefs price VWAP

Volume-weighted Chiefs price. Dolphins fills are converted to the complementary Chiefs probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h44.6¢▲ above by 55.4pp
VWAP 7d44.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Chiefs price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$3.8K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$10.0K
45¢
$1.3K
40¢
$50.4K
35¢
$7.6K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYChiefs$40.0K@ 40.0¢
takeormake0xa38a…821d
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

takeormakeChiefs$40.0K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·1 fill
iDARKenjoyerDolphins$12.3K
BUY VWAP 61.6¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.