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Spread: Louisiana (-6.5)

● quote 11s ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $181.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $20.7KEvent: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana
44.5¢
Louisiana
55.5¢
Arkansas State
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection22Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:4 trades$23.0K tracked25% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 46 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArkansas State$16.7K@ 53¢·primm

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Arkansas State pressure: $5.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.0K
6h
−$5.0K
tracked
$23.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: Arkansas State · $4.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 46 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Arkansas State or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Louisiana" if Louisiana win the game by 7 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Arkansas State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 3 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Louisiana" if Louisiana win the game by 7 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Arkansas State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Arkansas State@ 54.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Louisiana; negative values favor Arkansas State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArkansas State · $5.0K
6hArkansas State · $5.0K
24hArkansas State · $23.0K

Louisiana price VWAP

Volume-weighted Louisiana price. Arkansas State fills are converted to the complementary Louisiana probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current44.5¢
VWAP 24h46.7¢▼ below by 2.2pp
VWAP 7d47.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Louisiana price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$4.6K
45¢
$32.3K
40¢
← now
$500
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYArkansas State$16.7K@ 53.0¢
primm0xd38b…5029
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

primmArkansas State$16.7K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.