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Colts vs. Commanders

● quote 11s ago
Sports→Closes: about 16 hoursLiquidity: $979.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $445.5KEvent: Colts vs. Commanders
66.5¢
Colts
33.5¢
Commanders
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:14 trades$286.3K tracked21% 🐋source coverage 64%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 131 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Colts · $73.2K net·4 wallets(3🐋)·$102.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYColts$92.4K@ 66¢·chubbytoro

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$279.6K
tracked
$286.3K

4 verified profitable wallets: Colts · $73.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 131 minutes old.
  • •Less than 16h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 13:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If Colts wins, the market will resolve to "Colts".

•If Commanders wins, the market will resolve to "Commanders".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 9:30AM ET: If Colts wins, the market will resolve to "Colts". If Commanders wins, the market will resolve to "Commanders". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
chubbytoro2 linked markets · $444.3K gross
texaskid2 linked markets · $83.5K gross
Pwaddler2 linked markets · $42.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Colts@ 67.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Colts@ 67.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Colts@ 66.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Colts@ 64.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED +1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Colts; negative values favor Commanders. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hColts · $0
6hColts · $279.6K
24hColts · $281.6K

Colts price VWAP

Volume-weighted Colts price. Commanders fills are converted to the complementary Colts probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current66.5¢
VWAP 24h66.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d65.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Colts price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$307.9K
60¢
$116.2K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYColts$92.4K@ 66.0¢
chubbytoro0xe4a5…3cad
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYColts$92.4K@ 66.0¢
chubbytoro0xe4a5…3cad
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYColts$92.4K@ 66.0¢
chubbytoro0xe4a5…3cad
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYColts$19.7K@ 65.0¢
Elaran19930xb727…2a9d
🐋—1 day ago
BUYColts$38.3K@ 64.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋—2 days ago
BUYColts$18.1K@ 64.0¢
Pwaddler0x1d1a…0df6
🐋—3 days ago
BUYCommanders$14.8K@ 36.0¢
takeormake0xa38a…821d
🐋—3 days ago
BUYColts$12.0K@ 64.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋—4 days ago
BUYColts$14.0K@ 63.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋—5 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

chubbytoroColts$281.9K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·4 fills
texaskidColts$64.3K
BUY VWAP 63.8¢·3 fills
PwaddlerColts$26.8K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·2 fills
Elaran1993Colts$19.7K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill
takeormakeCommanders$14.8K
BUY VWAP 36.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.