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Spread: South Florida (-5.5)

● quote 14s ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $151.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $344.7KEvent: Temple vs. South Florida
50.5¢
South Florida
49.5¢
Temple
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly42Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets58Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:21 trades$164.5K tracked19% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 20 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Temple · $54.7K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$62.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTemple$68.1K@ 49¢·liquiditycrisis

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Temple pressure: $2.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.0K
6h
−$134.5K
tracked
$164.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: Temple · $54.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 20 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Temple or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "South Florida" if South Florida win the game by 6 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Temple".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 3 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "South Florida" if South Florida win the game by 6 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Temple". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Temple@ 49.0¢57m ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY Temple@ 49.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Temple@ 49.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Temple@ 49.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor South Florida; negative values favor Temple. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTemple · $2.0K
6hTemple · $134.5K
24hTemple · $134.5K

South Florida price VWAP

Volume-weighted South Florida price. Temple fills are converted to the complementary South Florida probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h51.2¢▼ below by 0.7pp
VWAP 7d51.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

South Florida price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$164.5K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTemple$15.0K@ 49.0¢
liquiditycrisis0xa904…d20c
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTemple$29.8K@ 49.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTemple$68.1K@ 49.0¢
liquiditycrisis0xa904…d20c
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTemple$29.0K@ 48.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

liquiditycrisisTemple$83.1K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Temple$58.8K
BUY VWAP 48.5¢·2 fills
PainfulvoidSouth Florida$10.9K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.