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Spread: Toledo (-20.5)

Sports→American FootballSettlement: Ball StateLiquidity: $138.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $92.5KEvent: Toledo vs. Ball State
0.0¢
Toledo payout
100.0¢
Ball State payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYToledo$20.6K@ 51¢·ferrariChampions2026

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Ball State. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-03 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Toledo" if Toledo win the game by 21 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ball State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 3 at 2:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toledo" if Toledo win the game by 21 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ball State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Toledo; negative values favor Ball State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hToledo · $0
6hToledo · $43.3K
24hToledo · $43.3K

Toledo price VWAP

Volume-weighted Toledo price. Ball State fills are converted to the complementary Toledo probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h50.9¢▼ below by 50.9pp
VWAP 7d50.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Toledo price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$45.7K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYToledo$20.6K@ 51.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—18 days ago
BUYToledo$18.4K@ 51.0¢
ic4cream0x27f7…44b0
🐋—18 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.