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Spread: Penn State (-10.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 41 minutesLiquidity: $103.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $19.7KEvent: Wisconsin vs. Penn State
44.5¢
Penn State
55.5¢
Wisconsin
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection29Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution65Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$42.9K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYWisconsin$15.2K@ 54¢·bands1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Wisconsin pressure: $12.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$12.4K
6h
−$25.2K
tracked
$42.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: Wisconsin · $7.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 23 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Wisconsin or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Penn State" if Penn State win the game by 11 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Wisconsin".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 26 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Penn State" if Penn State win the game by 11 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Wisconsin". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Wisconsin@ 54.0¢53m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Penn State UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $3 → $411 · 76s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Penn State; negative values favor Wisconsin. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hWisconsin · $12.4K
6hWisconsin · $25.2K
24hWisconsin · $33.8K

Penn State price VWAP

Volume-weighted Penn State price. Wisconsin fills are converted to the complementary Penn State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current44.5¢
VWAP 24h46.4¢▼ below by 1.9pp
VWAP 7d46.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Penn State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$42.9K
40¢
← now
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYWisconsin$15.2K@ 54.0¢
bands10xa080…234f
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

bands1Wisconsin$23.8K
BUY VWAP 53.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.