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Spread: South Florida (-18.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 42 minutesLiquidity: $724Official 24h Vol: $116.9KEvent: South Florida vs. Bowling Green
40.0¢
South Florida
57.0¢
Bowling Green
44.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection37Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution3Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$58.2K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 41 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBowling Green$28.7K@ 53¢·0xb4f9…c9a7

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Bowling Green pressure: $21.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$21.5K
6h
−$15.6K
tracked
$58.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: South Florida · $11.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
44.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +39.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 41 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 44.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 39.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Bowling Green or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "South Florida" if South Florida win the game by 19 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bowling Green".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 26 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "South Florida" if South Florida win the game by 19 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bowling Green". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $13.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Bowling Green39m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Bowling Green@ 54.0¢45m ago
15m INVALIDATED -6.0pp
Latest book event: Bowling Green UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $1.1K → $1.1K · 3s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor South Florida; negative values favor Bowling Green. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBowling Green · $21.5K
6hBowling Green · $15.6K
24hBowling Green · $15.6K

South Florida price VWAP

Volume-weighted South Florida price. Bowling Green fills are converted to the complementary South Florida probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.0¢
VWAP 24h47.4¢▼ below by 7.4pp
VWAP 7d47.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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South Florida price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$58.2K
40¢
← now
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBowling Green$28.7K@ 53.0¢0xb4f9…c9a7🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xb4f9…c9a7Bowling Green$28.7K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardSouth Florida$11.8K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.