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Spread: Nebraska (-5.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 41 minutesLiquidity: $124.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $501Event: Nebraska vs. Michigan State
48.5¢
Nebraska
51.5¢
Michigan State
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection34Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution79Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:6 trades$42.8K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 17 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNebraska$22.2K@ 52¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Michigan State pressure: $13.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$13.9K
6h
+$8.3K
tracked
$42.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: Nebraska · $1.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 17 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Michigan State or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Nebraska" if Nebraska win the game by 6 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Michigan State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 26 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Nebraska" if Nebraska win the game by 6 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Michigan State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
SDTrading2 linked markets · $47.7K gross
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $25.7K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $3.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Michigan State UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $6 → $144 · 33s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Nebraska; negative values favor Michigan State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMichigan State · $13.9K
6hNebraska · $8.3K
24hNebraska · $8.3K

Nebraska price VWAP

Volume-weighted Nebraska price. Michigan State fills are converted to the complementary Nebraska probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h52.1¢▼ below by 3.6pp
VWAP 7d52.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Nebraska price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$40.6K
45¢
← now
$2.2K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMichigan State$14.1K@ 47.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNebraska$22.2K@ 52.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafNebraska$23.6K
BUY VWAP 52.1¢·2 fills
SDTradingMichigan State$14.1K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.