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Iowa vs. Michigan

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $119.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $668.1KEvent: Iowa vs. Michigan
26.5¢
Iowa
73.5¢
Michigan
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection24Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets35Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:115 trades$346.6K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Michigan · $15.8K net·7 wallets·$45.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMichigan$44.7K@ 72¢·ethanaz

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Michigan SETUP
What the tape says

Michigan pressure: $83.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$83.1K
6h
−$221.7K
tracked
$346.6K

7 verified profitable wallets: Michigan · $15.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 58

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Michigan or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Iowa" if Iowa win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Michigan" if Michigan win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between Iowa and Michigan, scheduled for September 26 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Iowa" if Iowa win the game. This market will resolve to "Michigan" if Michigan win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard3 linked markets · $37.0K gross
sifonman2 linked markets · $24.6K gross
xasdasdas212 linked markets · $19.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Iowa UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $17.6K → $235 · 60s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Iowa; negative values favor Michigan. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMichigan · $83.1K
6hMichigan · $221.7K
24hMichigan · $223.7K

Iowa price VWAP

Volume-weighted Iowa price. Michigan fills are converted to the complementary Iowa probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current26.5¢
VWAP 24h29.9¢▼ below by 3.4pp
VWAP 7d29.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Iowa price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$48.7K
30¢
$122.1K
25¢
← now
$152.3K
20¢
$23.5K
15¢
$4
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMichigan$12.0K@ 76.1¢
sifonman0x6ac9…e85a
🐋—2 minutes ago
BUYMichigan$30.2K@ 74.0¢
ethanaz0xf28e…cab2
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMichigan$44.7K@ 72.0¢
ethanaz0xf28e…cab2
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMichigan$10.1K@ 71.0¢
xasdasdas210xaaaa…74d8
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMichigan$30.8K@ 69.0¢
KaneAnalytics0x7e3a…3246
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMichigan$10.8K@ 69.0¢
KaneAnalytics0x7e3a…3246
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMichigan$11.4K@ 69.0¢
KaneAnalytics0x7e3a…3246
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMichigan$11.2K@ 69.0¢
KaneAnalytics0x7e3a…3246
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYIowa$12.5K@ 35.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMichigan$10.1K@ 67.0¢
phonesculptor0xf152…64aa
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ethanazMichigan$80.9K
BUY VWAP 73.3¢·3 fills
KaneAnalyticsMichigan$64.2K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·4 fills
sifonmanMichigan$20.7K
BUY VWAP 74.7¢·2 fills
iDARKenjoyerMichigan$20.3K
BUY VWAP 67.5¢·3 fills
HomeRunHazardMichigan$13.7K
BUY VWAP 70.5¢·2 fills
wr0ngw4yb3tt0rIowa$12.6K
BUY VWAP 28.6¢·7 fills
texaskidIowa$12.5K
BUY VWAP 35.0¢·1 fill
xasdasdas21Michigan$12.2K
BUY VWAP 71.5¢·2 fills
phonesculptorMichigan$10.1K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.