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LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $62.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $207.9KEvent: LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs
83.0¢
FlyQuest
17.0¢
Shopify Rebellion
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets92Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:62 trades$65.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:FlyQuest · $41.2K net·9 wallets(1🐋)·$44.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFlyQuest$16.3K@ 79¢·jaytee158

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$149
6h
+$38.4K
tracked
$65.8K

9 verified profitable wallets: FlyQuest · $41.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 83% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FlyQuest" if FlyQuest win the match against Shopify Rebellion.

•This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion" if Shopify Rebellion win the match against FlyQuest.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal match between FlyQuest and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 25, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "FlyQuest" if FlyQuest win the match against Shopify Rebellion. This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion" if Shopify Rebellion win the match against FlyQuest. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 25, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
five51202 linked markets · $27.4K gross
0xa385…33172 linked markets · $12.5K gross
teacherbai2 linked markets · $7.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY FlyQuest@ 79.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +6.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FlyQuest; negative values favor Shopify Rebellion. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hShopify Rebellion · $149
6hFlyQuest · $38.4K
24hFlyQuest · $46.1K

FlyQuest price VWAP

Volume-weighted FlyQuest price. Shopify Rebellion fills are converted to the complementary FlyQuest probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current83.0¢
VWAP 24h78.8¢▲ above by 4.2pp
VWAP 7d78.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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FlyQuest price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$30
85¢
$3.9K
80¢
← now
$35
75¢
$58.9K
70¢
$2.9K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFlyQuest$16.3K@ 79.0¢
jaytee1580xa2c9…2c23
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

jaytee158FlyQuest$39.6K
BUY VWAP 78.9¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.