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Tolentino: Laura Samson vs Noemi Basiletti

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $240.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $309.6KEvent: Tolentino: Laura Samson vs Noemi Basiletti
0.1¢
Laura Samson
100.0¢
Noemi Basiletti
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets10Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:106 trades$90.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Noemi Basiletti · $2.5K net·14 wallets(1🐋)·$26.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNoemi Basiletti$12.1K@ 98¢·Flaznorp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Noemi Basiletti pressure: $6.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$6.2K
6h
+$13.6K
tracked
$90.0K

14 verified profitable wallets: Noemi Basiletti · $2.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Noemi Basiletti or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-28 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Laura Samson and Noemi Basiletti in the Tolentino, originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Laura Samson' if Laura Samson advances against Noemi Basiletti. This market will resolve to 'Noemi Basiletti' if Noemi Basiletti advances against Laura Samson. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Laura Samson UP 4.3pp · near-book depth $12.5K → $40 · 16s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Laura Samson; negative values favor Noemi Basiletti. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNoemi Basiletti · $6.2K
6hLaura Samson · $13.6K
24hLaura Samson · $13.6K

Laura Samson price VWAP

Volume-weighted Laura Samson price. Noemi Basiletti fills are converted to the complementary Laura Samson probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h34.9¢▼ below by 34.8pp
VWAP 7d34.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Laura Samson price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$4.8K
60¢
$9.5K
55¢
$14.2K
50¢
$9.3K
45¢
$1.7K
40¢
$8.3K
35¢
$69
30¢
$3.9K
25¢
$3.9K
20¢
$2.2K
15¢
$7.1K
10¢
$145
5¢
$3.1K
0¢
← now
$21.8K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNoemi Basiletti$12.1K@ 98.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

FlaznorpNoemi Basiletti$12.1K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.