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Kraken vs. Lightning

● quote just now
Sports→HockeyCloses: 14 minutesLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $57.1KEvent: Kraken vs. Lightning
29.5¢
Kraken
70.5¢
Lightning
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority48Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$18.5K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Kraken · $11.0K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$11.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKraken$11.0K@ 29¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Kraken pressure: $2.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.1K
6h
+$2.1K
tracked
$18.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: Kraken · $11.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 48

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Kraken or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-15 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nhl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If the Kraken win, the market will resolve to "Kraken".

•If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to "Lightning".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for October 15 at 7:00PM ET: If the Kraken win, the market will resolve to "Kraken". If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to "Lightning". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $14.5K gross
0x08fb…6dbb2 linked markets · $4 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Kraken; negative values favor Lightning. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKraken · $2.1K
6hKraken · $2.1K
24hKraken · $8.6K

Kraken price VWAP

Volume-weighted Kraken price. Lightning fills are converted to the complementary Kraken probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current29.5¢
VWAP 24h29.3¢▲ above by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d30.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Kraken price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$9.5K
25¢
← now
$13.2K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYKraken$11.0K@ 29.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Kraken$11.0K
BUY VWAP 29.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.