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Valencia: Guiomar Maristany vs Marina Bassols Ribera

● quote 24s ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $2.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $338.2KEvent: Valencia: Guiomar Maristany vs Marina Bassols Ribera
56.5¢
Guiomar Maristany
43.5¢
Marina Bassols Ribera
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets48Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution67Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:192 trades$120.6K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 41 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Guiomar Maristany · $24.6K net·12 wallets·$51.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMarina Bassols Ribera$10.0K@ 43¢·Runemup

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$32
6h
−$1.2K
tracked
$120.6K

12 verified profitable wallets: Guiomar Maristany · $24.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 41 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-23 12:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Guiomar Maristany and Marina Bassols Ribera in the Valencia, originally scheduled for September 16, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Guiomar Maristany' if Guiomar Maristany advances against Marina Bassols Ribera. This market will resolve to 'Marina Bassols Ribera' if Marina Bassols Ribera advances against Guiomar Maristany. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Guiomar Maristany UP 7.5pp · near-book depth $12 → $148 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Guiomar Maristany; negative values favor Marina Bassols Ribera. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMarina Bassols Ribera · $32
6hMarina Bassols Ribera · $1.2K
24hGuiomar Maristany · $43.0K

Guiomar Maristany price VWAP

Volume-weighted Guiomar Maristany price. Marina Bassols Ribera fills are converted to the complementary Guiomar Maristany probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current56.5¢
VWAP 24h61.1¢▼ below by 4.6pp
VWAP 7d61.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Guiomar Maristany price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$6.8K
85¢
$56
80¢
$14.2K
75¢
$55
70¢
$41
65¢
$3.1K
60¢
$15.1K
55¢
← now
$46.4K
50¢
$20.6K
45¢
$14.3K
40¢
$39
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMarina Bassols Ribera$10.0K@ 42.6¢
Runemup0x75f2…ff6d
🐋—about 14 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

watcherz88Guiomar Maristany$14.2K
BUY VWAP 55.5¢·4 fills
0x2c33…0563Guiomar Maristany$10.6K
BUY VWAP 56.3¢·3 fills
RunemupMarina Bassols Ribera$10.0K
BUY VWAP 42.6¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.