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LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $391.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $832.6KEvent: LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs
43.5¢
Top Esports
56.5¢
Invictus Gaming
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly49Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets77Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:139 trades$384.8K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Invictus Gaming · $1.2K net·4 wallets·$1.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYInvictus Gaming$67.2K@ 56¢·Diabolical-Prize

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Invictus Gaming pressure: $3.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.7K
6h
+$5.4K
tracked
$384.8K

4 verified profitable wallets: Invictus Gaming · $1.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 54

Since latest thesis flip: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Invictus Gaming or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-17 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win the match against Invictus Gaming.

•This market will resolve to "Invictus Gaming" if Invictus Gaming win the match against Top Esports.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket final match between Top Esports and Invictus Gaming in the LPL Regional Finals Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 17, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win the match against Invictus Gaming. This market will resolve to "Invictus Gaming" if Invictus Gaming win the match against Top Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 17, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

THESIS FLIPBUY Invictus Gaming@ 57.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Top Esports@ 45.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY Invictus Gaming@ 56.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Top Esports@ 45.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Top Esports; negative values favor Invictus Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hInvictus Gaming · $3.7K
6hTop Esports · $5.4K
24hInvictus Gaming · $100.8K

Top Esports price VWAP

Volume-weighted Top Esports price. Invictus Gaming fills are converted to the complementary Top Esports probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current43.5¢
VWAP 24h44.2¢▼ below by 0.7pp
VWAP 7d44.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Top Esports price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$139.4K
40¢
← now
$277.5K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYInvictus Gaming$15.7K@ 57.0¢
omomom30x0a53…077b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYInvictus Gaming$14.5K@ 57.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYInvictus Gaming$35.4K@ 57.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLTop Esports$37.2K@ 44.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTop Esports$12.6K@ 45.0¢
jtwyslljy0x9cb9…32f2
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTop Esports$28.8K@ 45.0¢
fantasy77880x0259…769e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTop Esports$42.9K@ 45.0¢
fantasy77880x0259…769e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTop Esports$35.5K@ 45.0¢
jtwyslljy0x9cb9…32f2
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYInvictus Gaming$67.2K@ 56.0¢
Diabolical-Prize0x7c37…6aeb
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYInvictus Gaming$13.6K@ 56.0¢
ziyoucui0x2c2a…267e
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYTop Esports$23.1K@ 44.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

fantasy7788Top Esports$71.7K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·2 fills
Diabolical-PrizeInvictus Gaming$67.2K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
Lakersfan111Invictus Gaming$49.9K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·2 fills
jtwyslljyTop Esports$48.1K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·2 fills
Lakersfan111Top Esports$25.5K
BUY VWAP 43.9¢·2 fills
0x9e3e…f882Invictus Gaming$16.8K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·7 fills
omomom3Invictus Gaming$15.7K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill
ziyoucuiInvictus Gaming$13.6K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.