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LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 4 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $78.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $829.7KEvent: LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs
89.5¢
Top Esports
10.5¢
Invictus Gaming
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets37Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 25 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:290 trades$399.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Invictus Gaming · $43.8K net·25 wallets(2🐋)·$119.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYInvictus Gaming$26.0K@ 54¢·BrotherObama

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Top Esports pressure: $65.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$65.4K
6h
+$68.4K
tracked
$399.3K

25 verified profitable wallets: Invictus Gaming · $43.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 54

Since latest market sweep: +19.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 19.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Top Esports or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-17 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win Game 4 against Invictus Gaming.

•This market will resolve to "Invictus Gaming" if Invictus Gaming win Game 4 against Top Esports.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket final match between Top Esports and Invictus Gaming in the LPL Regional Finals Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 17, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win Game 4 against Invictus Gaming. This market will resolve to "Invictus Gaming" if Invictus Gaming win Game 4 against Top Esports. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 4 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 4. If Game 4 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 17, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Diabolical-Prize4 linked markets · $309.7K gross
JaJa8883 linked markets · $163.2K gross
BrotherObama5 linked markets · $146.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Top Esports0m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Top Esports@ 71.0¢9m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Top Esports9m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Top Esports12m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Top Esports DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $58 → $108 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Top Esports; negative values favor Invictus Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTop Esports · $65.4K
6hTop Esports · $68.4K
24hTop Esports · $68.4K

Top Esports price VWAP

Volume-weighted Top Esports price. Invictus Gaming fills are converted to the complementary Top Esports probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current89.5¢
VWAP 24h52.3¢▲ above by 37.2pp
VWAP 7d52.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Top Esports price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$0
80¢
$2.4K
75¢
$4.8K
70¢
$4.7K
65¢
$7.1K
60¢
$24.5K
55¢
$42.9K
50¢
$126.2K
45¢
$185.9K
40¢
$627
35¢
$73
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYInvictus Gaming$18.2K@ 46.0¢
ColinHe0x6842…20d0
🐋—4 minutes ago
BUYInvictus Gaming$10.0K@ 48.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—18 minutes ago
BUYInvictus Gaming$26.0K@ 53.8¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—20 minutes ago
BUYTop Esports$14.4K@ 48.0¢
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN0xdaef…54e9
🐋—21 minutes ago
BUYInvictus Gaming$10.6K@ 53.0¢
SineNooneEI0x3833…33d1
🐋—22 minutes ago
BUYTop Esports$11.1K@ 49.3¢
Sunshine.Smile0xd3b0…329e
🐋—23 minutes ago
BUYTop Esports$21.0K@ 49.6¢
MaoZeDonK0x19ae…395c
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$2.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs
93.5¢$1.7Mpriority44Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner
100.0¢$1.4Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5)
0.1¢$78.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 3.5
100.0¢$66.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs NRG (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs
42.5¢$736.2Kpriority46Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$680.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BrotherObamaInvictus Gaming$42.7K
BUY VWAP 51.9¢·3 fills
MaoZeDonKTop Esports$29.2K
BUY VWAP 49.9¢·3 fills
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANTop Esports$22.8K
BUY VWAP 47.8¢·3 fills
ColinHeInvictus Gaming$18.2K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill
48binnTop Esports$14.6K
BUY VWAP 58.1¢·6 fills
Sunshine.SmileTop Esports$14.3K
BUY VWAP 49.4¢·2 fills
fkcvffcjtTop Esports$13.6K
BUY VWAP 58.3¢·5 fills
254321758Top Esports$11.3K
BUY VWAP 50.8¢·4 fills
Username2133Top Esports$11.0K
BUY VWAP 54.9¢·7 fills
SineNooneEIInvictus Gaming$10.6K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.