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Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Semen Pankin

Sports→Settlement: Elias YmerLiquidity: $227.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $595.5KEvent: Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Semen Pankin
100.0¢
Elias Ymer payout
0.0¢
Semen Pankin payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:198 trades$205.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 711 min agoofficial metadata 695 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Elias Ymer · $8.7K net·20 wallets·$56.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLElias Ymer$19.9K@ 100¢·Runemup

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Elias Ymer. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-21 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Elias Ymer and Semen Pankin in the Guangzhou, originally scheduled for September 14, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elias Ymer' if Elias Ymer advances against Semen Pankin. This market will resolve to 'Semen Pankin' if Semen Pankin advances against Elias Ymer. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Elias Ymer UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $53.2K → $40.6K · 26s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Elias Ymer; negative values favor Semen Pankin. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSemen Pankin · $38.8K
6hSemen Pankin · $38.8K
24hSemen Pankin · $38.8K

Elias Ymer price VWAP

Volume-weighted Elias Ymer price. Semen Pankin fills are converted to the complementary Elias Ymer probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h65.5¢▲ above by 34.5pp
VWAP 7d65.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Elias Ymer price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$54.1K
90¢
$19.8K
85¢
$2.5K
80¢
$1.2K
75¢
$1.5K
70¢
$8.3K
65¢
$5.1K
60¢
$525
55¢
$9.4K
50¢
$7.6K
45¢
$15.1K
40¢
$40.9K
35¢
$35.9K
30¢
$3.2K
25¢
$154
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLElias Ymer$14.4K@ 99.9¢0x41bb…26e8🐋—about 12 hours ago
SELLElias Ymer$19.9K@ 99.9¢
Runemup0x75f2…ff6d
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYElias Ymer$10.0K@ 38.3¢
SS7878780xdd7e…0be3
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYSemen Pankin$10.0K@ 59.0¢
fivethirty0x2e6c…0c51
🐋—about 15 hours ago
SELLElias Ymer$12.0K@ 44.3¢
fivethirty0x2e6c…0c51
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYElias Ymer$10.0K@ 36.8¢
fivethirty0x2e6c…0c51
🐋—about 15 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

RN1Elias Ymer$12.9K
BUY VWAP 91.0¢·6 fills
fivethirtySemen Pankin$12.0K
BUY VWAP 20.2¢·3 fills
SS787878Elias Ymer$10.0K
BUY VWAP 38.3¢·1 fill
fivethirtyElias Ymer$10.0K
BUY VWAP 36.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.