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UFC Fight Night: Norma Dumont vs. Ailin Perez (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $350.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $469.4KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Norma Dumont vs. Ailin Perez (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)
0.1¢
Norma Dumont
100.0¢
Ailin Perez
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection23Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets43Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 16 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:149 trades$198.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Ailin Perez · $68.6K net·16 wallets(2🐋)·$160.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAilin Perez$101.2K@ 60¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Ailin Perez pressure: $45.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$45.7K
6h
−$35.5K
tracked
$198.4K

16 verified profitable wallets: Ailin Perez · $68.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: -76.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Ailin Perez or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Norma Dumont" if Norma Dumont is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ailin Perez at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Ailin Perez" if Ailin Perez is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Norma Dumont" if Norma Dumont is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ailin Perez at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2026. It will resolve to "Ailin Perez" if Ailin Perez is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 10, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe911…3d4e2 linked markets · $13.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Norma Dumont@ 77.0¢20m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Ailin Perez@ 53.0¢26m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Norma Dumont DOWN 92.0pp · near-book depth $816 → $2 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Norma Dumont; negative values favor Ailin Perez. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAilin Perez · $45.7K
6hAilin Perez · $35.5K
24hAilin Perez · $42.3K

Norma Dumont price VWAP

Volume-weighted Norma Dumont price. Ailin Perez fills are converted to the complementary Norma Dumont probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h45.0¢▼ below by 44.9pp
VWAP 7d44.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Norma Dumont price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$125
70¢
$33.0K
65¢
$3.5K
60¢
$3.5K
55¢
$57
50¢
$10.5K
45¢
$2.4K
40¢
$140.4K
35¢
$14
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$2.7K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$9.2K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNorma Dumont$15.6K@ 71.8¢0x2c33…0563🐋—18 minutes ago
BUYNorma Dumont$10.1K@ 51.9¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—25 minutes ago
BUYAilin Perez$101.2K@ 60.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—40 minutes ago
BUYNorma Dumont$11.2K@ 40.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Ailin Perez$101.2K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Norma Dumont$21.8K
BUY VWAP 71.9¢·3 fills
Sassy-BucketNorma Dumont$11.2K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·1 fill
fkcvffcjtNorma Dumont$10.1K
BUY VWAP 51.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.