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UFC Fight Night: Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)

Sports→Settlement: Valesca MachadoLiquidity: $366.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $175.6KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)
100.0¢
Valesca Machado payout
0.0¢
Melissa Amaya payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:80 trades$81.9K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 148 min agoofficial metadata 126 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Valesca Machado · $6.0K net·17 wallets·$15.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYValesca Machado$49.3K@ 99¢·karteror99.9

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Valesca Machado. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-27 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Valesca Machado" if Valesca Machado is officially declared the winner of the fight against Melissa Amaya at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Melissa Amaya" if Melissa Amaya is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Valesca Machado" if Valesca Machado is officially declared the winner of the fight against Melissa Amaya at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2026. It will resolve to "Melissa Amaya" if Melissa Amaya is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 10, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Valesca Machado; negative values favor Melissa Amaya. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hValesca Machado · $58.5K
6hValesca Machado · $58.5K
24hValesca Machado · $59.3K

Valesca Machado price VWAP

Volume-weighted Valesca Machado price. Melissa Amaya fills are converted to the complementary Valesca Machado probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h90.7¢▲ above by 9.3pp
VWAP 7d90.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Valesca Machado price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$57.7K
90¢
$91
85¢
$804
80¢
$6.1K
75¢
$3.0K
70¢
$26
65¢
$14.2K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYValesca Machado$49.3K@ 98.6¢
karteror99.90x3050…26d2
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

karteror99.9Valesca Machado$49.3K
BUY VWAP 98.6¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.