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UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)

● quote 22s ago
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $1.5MOfficial 24h Vol: $746.8KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)
0.1¢
Raoni Barcelos
100.0¢
Raul Rosas Jr.
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets35Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 15 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:238 trades$253.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 17 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Raoni Barcelos · $599 net·15 wallets·$22.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRaul Rosas Jr.$88.5K@ 59¢·surfandturf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Raoni Barcelos pressure: $39.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$39.9K
6h
−$49.7K
tracked
$253.8K

15 verified profitable wallets: Raoni Barcelos · $599 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +40.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 17 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 40.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Raoni Barcelos or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Raoni Barcelos" if Raoni Barcelos is officially declared the winner of the fight against Raul Rosas Jr. at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Raul Rosas Jr." if Raul Rosas Jr. is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Raoni Barcelos" if Raoni Barcelos is officially declared the winner of the fight against Raul Rosas Jr. at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2026. It will resolve to "Raul Rosas Jr." if Raul Rosas Jr. is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 10, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Raul Rosas Jr.1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Raul Rosas Jr.1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Raul Rosas Jr.@ 60.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -24.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Raul Rosas Jr.@ 59.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Raoni Barcelos DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $744 → $822 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Raoni Barcelos; negative values favor Raul Rosas Jr.. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRaoni Barcelos · $39.9K
6hRaul Rosas Jr. · $49.7K
24hRaul Rosas Jr. · $39.9K

Raoni Barcelos price VWAP

Volume-weighted Raoni Barcelos price. Raul Rosas Jr. fills are converted to the complementary Raoni Barcelos probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h37.0¢▼ below by 37.0pp
VWAP 7d37.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Raoni Barcelos price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$4
90¢
$575
85¢
$6.3K
80¢
$2.4K
75¢
$2.0K
70¢
$0
65¢
$2.5K
60¢
$579
55¢
$1.9K
50¢
$9.2K
45¢
$2.7K
40¢
$190.9K
35¢
$16.1K
30¢
$2.0K
25¢
$4.4K
20¢
$355
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$41.7K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRaul Rosas Jr.$88.5K@ 59.0¢
surfandturf0x9f2f…2ca8
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYRaoni Barcelos$10.5K@ 42.0¢
WhattDoyoumean0x8660…93ed
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYRaul Rosas Jr.$27.4K@ 58.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

surfandturfRaul Rosas Jr.$88.5K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill
Sassy-BucketRaul Rosas Jr.$27.4K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill
WhattDoyoumeanRaoni Barcelos$10.5K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.