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Spread: 49ers (-13.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $140.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $655.5KEvent: Dolphins vs. 49ers
100.0¢
49ers
0.1¢
Dolphins
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly2Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:18 trades$320.9K tracked17% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 17 min agoofficial metadata 44s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDolphins$148.3K@ 53¢·Tiger200

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$161
6h
−$289.4K
tracked
$320.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: 49ers · $6 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest position change: -52.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 17 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "49ers" if the 49ers win the game by 14 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Dolphins".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Dolphins and 49ers, scheduled for September 20 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "49ers" if the 49ers win the game by 14 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Dolphins". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $199.0K gross
quavoo4 linked markets · $64.3K gross
maz262 linked markets · $43.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY Dolphins@ 53.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -19.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Dolphins@ 52.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -10.0pp1h INVALIDATED -24.0pp
Latest book event: 49ers UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $7.9K → $2.2K · 12s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor 49ers; negative values favor Dolphins. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h49ers · $161
6hDolphins · $289.4K
24hDolphins · $287.3K

49ers price VWAP

Volume-weighted 49ers price. Dolphins fills are converted to the complementary 49ers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h47.6¢▲ above by 52.4pp
VWAP 7d47.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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49ers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$161
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$6
70¢
$0
65¢
$2
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$320.8K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYDolphins$130.1K@ 52.0¢
Tiger2000x6211…b89e
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYDolphins$148.3K@ 53.0¢
Tiger2000x6211…b89e
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYDolphins$20.7K@ 52.0¢
ratatatatatatatataaaa0x7f8e…4487
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Tiger200Dolphins$278.4K
BUY VWAP 52.5¢·2 fills
ratatatatatatatataaaaDolphins$20.7K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.