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Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $552.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $726.2KEvent: Colts vs. Chiefs
45.5¢
Chiefs
54.5¢
Colts
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets56Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority57Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 89%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:18 trades$415.7K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 57%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Colts · $17.2K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$26.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYColts$302.9K@ 54¢·Tiger200

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Chiefs SETUP
What the tape says

Chiefs pressure: $4.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.1K
6h
−$295.5K
tracked
$415.7K

2 verified profitable wallets: Colts · $17.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 89% · priority 57

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Chiefs or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-21 00:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if the Chiefs win the game by 7 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Colts". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Colts".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 8:20 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if the Chiefs win the game by 7 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Colts". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Colts". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
omoi0i02 linked markets · $55.2K gross
quavoo2 linked markets · $31.3K gross
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $16.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Colts@ 54.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Chiefs; negative values favor Colts. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hChiefs · $4.1K
6hColts · $295.5K
24hColts · $293.5K

Chiefs price VWAP

Volume-weighted Chiefs price. Colts fills are converted to the complementary Chiefs probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current45.5¢
VWAP 24h46.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d46.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Chiefs price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$6.8K
45¢
← now
$423.4K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYChiefs$15.6K@ 46.0¢
vilkaZ0x5f38…eb70
🐋—14 minutes ago
BUYColts$19.0K@ 54.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—19 minutes ago
BUYColts$10.1K@ 54.0¢
Herdonia0xd106…c79c
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYColts$10.1K@ 54.0¢
Herdonia0xd106…c79c
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYColts$302.9K@ 54.0¢
Tiger2000x6211…b89e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYChiefs$10.4K@ 46.0¢
VibeDoter0xe4a7…dc87
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Tiger200Colts$302.9K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
HerdoniaColts$21.9K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·3 fills
vilkaZChiefs$21.2K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·2 fills
maz26Colts$19.0K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
xasdasdas21Chiefs$18.3K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·4 fills
VibeDoterChiefs$10.4K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.