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Istanbul 3: Max Basing vs Edas Butvilas

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $579.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $99.3KEvent: Istanbul 3: Max Basing vs Edas Butvilas
100.0¢
Max Basing
0.1¢
Edas Butvilas
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection20Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets50Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:42 trades$41.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 21 min agoofficial metadata 39s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Max Basing · $6.5K net·10 wallets·$13.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLMax Basing$11.3K@ 100¢·0x5f30…3aee

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Edas Butvilas pressure: $8.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$8.2K
6h
−$851
tracked
$41.2K

10 verified profitable wallets: Max Basing · $6.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 21 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Edas Butvilas or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-18 07:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Max Basing and Edas Butvilas in the Istanbul 3, originally scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Max Basing' if Max Basing advances against Edas Butvilas. This market will resolve to 'Edas Butvilas' if Edas Butvilas advances against Max Basing. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Max Basing UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $192 → $13.3K · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Max Basing; negative values favor Edas Butvilas. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hEdas Butvilas · $8.2K
6hEdas Butvilas · $851
24hEdas Butvilas · $851

Max Basing price VWAP

Volume-weighted Max Basing price. Edas Butvilas fills are converted to the complementary Max Basing probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h76.3¢▲ above by 23.7pp
VWAP 7d76.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Max Basing price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$11.3K
90¢
$1.9K
85¢
$5.3K
80¢
$2.0K
75¢
$3.4K
70¢
$0
65¢
$4.3K
60¢
$7.0K
55¢
$2.9K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$3.2K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMax Basing$11.3K@ 99.9¢0x5f30…3aee🐋—26 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.