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Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $537.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $319.4KEvent: Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets
42.5¢
Baltimore Orioles
57.5¢
New York Mets
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly10Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets41Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:19 trades$164.9K tracked26% 🐋source coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 27 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:New York Mets · $22.8K net·4 wallets(2🐋)·$55.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNew York Mets$37.8K@ 57¢·Talvez10

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$499
6h
−$119.2K
tracked
$164.9K

4 verified profitable wallets: New York Mets · $22.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 27 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-21 23:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game.

•This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets, scheduled for September 14 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY New York Mets@ 58.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY New York Mets@ 58.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY New York Mets@ 57.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY New York Mets@ 57.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Baltimore Orioles; negative values favor New York Mets. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBaltimore Orioles · $499
6hNew York Mets · $119.2K
24hNew York Mets · $119.2K

Baltimore Orioles price VWAP

Volume-weighted Baltimore Orioles price. New York Mets fills are converted to the complementary Baltimore Orioles probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current42.5¢
VWAP 24h44.5¢▼ below by 2.0pp
VWAP 7d44.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Baltimore Orioles price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$52.1K
40¢
← now
$112.8K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNew York Mets$37.8K@ 57.0¢
Talvez100xa710…23c4
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYNew York Mets$29.3K@ 56.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYNew York Mets$35.1K@ 55.5¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYNew York Mets$32.6K@ 54.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYBaltimore Orioles$13.8K@ 47.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1New York Mets$97.7K
BUY VWAP 55.1¢·4 fills
Talvez10New York Mets$37.8K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill
0x1610…ae49Baltimore Orioles$16.3K
BUY VWAP 46.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.