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Shanghai: Marat Sharipov vs Taro Daniel

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $140.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $175.0KEvent: Shanghai: Marat Sharipov vs Taro Daniel
52.0¢
Marat Sharipov
48.0¢
Taro Daniel
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection85Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets65Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution72Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority79Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$90.1K tracked29% 🐋source coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Marat Sharipov · $2.6K net·2 wallets·$2.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTaro Daniel$15.0K@ 67¢·0x78be…bde0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Taro Daniel pressure: $76.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$76.6K
6h
−$74.1K
tracked
$90.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: Marat Sharipov · $2.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 78% · priority 79

Since latest accumulation: -9.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Taro Daniel or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-16 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Marat Sharipov and Taro Daniel in the Shanghai, originally scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marat Sharipov' if Marat Sharipov advances against Taro Daniel. This market will resolve to 'Taro Daniel' if Taro Daniel advances against Marat Sharipov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Taro Daniel@ 59.0¢24m ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Taro Daniel@ 59.0¢24m ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp
Latest book event: Taro Daniel DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $7.1K → $7.0K · 29s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Marat Sharipov; negative values favor Taro Daniel. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTaro Daniel · $76.6K
6hTaro Daniel · $74.1K
24hTaro Daniel · $74.1K

Marat Sharipov price VWAP

Volume-weighted Marat Sharipov price. Taro Daniel fills are converted to the complementary Marat Sharipov probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.0¢
VWAP 24h35.9¢▲ above by 16.2pp
VWAP 7d35.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Marat Sharipov price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$3.6K
35¢
$62.1K
30¢
$19.1K
25¢
$5.3K
20¢
$0
15¢
$18
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTaro Daniel$15.0K@ 63.0¢0x78be…bde0🐋—27 minutes ago
BUYTaro Daniel$15.0K@ 63.2¢0x78be…bde0🐋—27 minutes ago
BUYTaro Daniel$15.0K@ 67.1¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTaro Daniel$15.0K@ 63.2¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTaro Daniel$14.6K@ 62.8¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x78be…bde0Taro Daniel$78.7K
BUY VWAP 63.9¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.